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September inflation could hit 7.4% as food, fuel, and peso pressures build

Oct 5, 2026 · 2 min readBy KasKasan Buddies

The BSP expects September 2026 inflation to reach 6.4% to 7.4%, with weather-related food prices, fuel costs, and a weaker peso adding pressure.

  • Prices could continue rising at a faster pace in September, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasting inflation to settle between 6.4% and 7.4% as food, fuel, and other price pressures build.
  • The upper end of the BSP’s forecast would put September inflation at 7.4%, meaning the average prices of goods and services could be significantly higher than a year earlier if the forecast materializes.
  • Weather disturbances are expected to be one of the main sources of pressure. The BSP said prices of vegetables, fish, rice, and fruits could increase as weather conditions affect supply.

The BSP expects September 2026 inflation to reach 6.4% to 7.4%, with weather-related food prices, fuel costs, and a weaker peso adding pressure.

  • Prices could continue rising at a faster pace in September, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasting inflation to settle between 6.4% and 7.4% as food, fuel, and other price pressures build.
  • The upper end of the BSP’s forecast would put September inflation at 7.4%, meaning the average prices of goods and services could be significantly higher than a year earlier if the forecast materializes.
  • Weather disturbances are expected to be one of the main sources of pressure. The BSP said prices of vegetables, fish, rice, and fruits could increase as weather conditions affect supply.

Prices could continue rising at a faster pace in September, with the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecasting inflation to settle between 6.4% and 7.4% as food, fuel, and other price pressures build.

The upper end of the BSP’s forecast would put September inflation at 7.4%, meaning the average prices of goods and services could be significantly higher than a year earlier if the forecast materializes.

Weather disturbances are expected to be one of the main sources of pressure. The BSP said prices of vegetables, fish, rice, and fruits could increase as weather conditions affect supply.

Higher domestic petroleum prices could add another layer of pressure, making fuel more expensive and potentially increasing transportation and delivery costs. A weaker peso could also push prices higher, particularly for imported goods and inputs.

Not all price pressures are expected to move in the same direction, however. Lower meat prices and electricity rates could partly offset increases in food and fuel.

The forecast comes as the BSP continues to monitor developments that could affect the country’s inflation outlook, including recent weather disturbances and developments in the Middle East.

For households, the inflation forecast matters because faster price growth can put more pressure on everyday budgets. Food and transportation costs can affect how much money is left for savings, debt payments, and other expenses, while changes in the peso can influence the prices of imported products.

The BSP said it will continue assessing incoming data, particularly on inflation and economic growth, before determining how recent developments could affect the country’s economic outlook.

The September inflation figure will be released by the Philippine Statistics Authority after the month ends.